Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism

The assessment of risk is complex and often controversial. It is derived from the existence of a hazard, and it is characterized by the uncertainty of possible undesirable events and their outcomes. Few outcomes are as undesirable as nuclear war and nuclear terrorism. Over the decades, much has been written about particular situations, policies, and weapons that might affect the risks of nuclear war and nuclear terrorism. The nature of the concerns and the risk analysis methods used to evaluate them have evolved considerably over time. At the request of the Department of Defense, Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism discusses risks, explores the risk assessment literature, highlights the strengths and weaknesses of risk assessment approaches, and discusses some publicly available assumptions that underpin U.S. security strategies, all in the context of nuclear war and nuclear terrorism. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2 The Threat of Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Classes of Scenarios 3 The History and Literature of Risk Assessment for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism 4 The Use of Risk Assessment for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism 5 The Structure of Risk Analysis 6 Risk Analysis Methods and Models 7 Risk Information and Risk Management Decisions 8 Conclusions and Next Steps References Appendixes Appendix A: U.S. Strategic Assumptions About Nuclear Risks Appendix B: Types of Uncertainty Appendix C: U.S. Policy-Making Structure for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism Appendix D: Agendas of Committee Meetings Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies